Weekly bitumen report: Exploring the Dynamics of Oil Prices in Iran
Iran’s oil prices remain stable, but competition between refineries has increased, leading to a rise in vacuum bottom prices.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has extended its membership to Iran for the first time in 15 years. In the past week, Iran officially joined the SCO. The total gross domestic product (GDP) of the SCO members is 23.7 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 24.2 percent of the total global GDP. Furthermore, the total population of the SCO’s members is 3.3 billion, or 330 million individuals, representing 42 percent of the global population.
The British Oil Company (BP) reported in 2021 that eight members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) plus Iran collectively account for approximately 20% of the global oil inventories, 44% of global natural gas inventories and 50% of global uranium inventories. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Narenda Modi welcomed Iran’s membership in the SCO, however, it remains to be seen whether this permanent membership will have a lasting impact on the commercial relations between Iran and other nations.
The Chairman of Shell Oil Company, Wael Sawan, has declared that the curtailment of oil and gas production is a “dangerous and irresponsible” practice. Sawan asserted that the global economy is in dire need of oil and natural gas, as the transition to renewable energy sources and its substitution with oil is not progressing at a rapid enough rate. He has also warned that the increased demand from China, as well as the harsh winter conditions in Europe, will result in an increase in energy costs.
On July 5th, Singapore’s HSFO CST180 price increased by 3 USD and stabilized at 455 USD, while its bulk bitumen price reached 445 USD. Bahrainan bitumen traded at a fixed price of 390 USD. Singapore’s bitumen price decreased, but increased in Spain and certain regions of Africa.
After four consecutive drops in India’s bitumen price to its lowest level since the start of 2023, Indian refineries appear to have no plans to further reduce prices.
A Closer Look at Iran’s Situation
As in previous weeks, the situation in Iran has been complex. Oil prices have not seen any significant increases, however, the average competition between the refineries has risen again, and it is anticipated that the basic price of vacuum bottom will rise by the start of the month. The demand from India, as well as other markets, has been increasing, leading to an increase in demand in the Iran market. Additionally, due to congestion and logistics issues in Bandar Abbas, orders have been delayed. In the absence of any new developments in the market, bitumen prices are expected to gradually increase.
This article was prepared by Shirin Yousefi, the Content specialist and market analyst of Infinity Galaxy